Edwards is lookin’ good in Iowa

Tim F. at Balloon Juice wonders something I’ve been wondering: Shouldn’t we be talking a lot about Iowan’s 2nd choices for the upcoming caucuses? The polls out of Iowa usually report who voters intend to caucus for, with Hillary or Obama in the lead, and Edwards coming semi-close behind. But in a caucus, if your candidate doesn’t make the first round, you have to fall back to your 2nd choice, and put your votes there.

Someone in the comments came up with this MSNBC link, which says Eddy is doing great as a 2nd choice candidate, 42-29-28 over Hilly and ‘Bammy.

I don’t have the patience to study the Iowa caucus procedure obsessively (the process is Byzantine and embarrassing), but it seems that in order to get votes from a precinct you need to survive the first round of voting as a “viable” candidate by getting 15-25% of that precinct’s vote. Obama, Hillary and Edwards will all probably reach that level… most of the numbers I’ve seen from Iowa have had each at 25% or more. However, everything I’ve read about the actual caucus night says that crazy stuff goes down, people switch around like madmen, campaign organization matters a lot, and the devil rides a jet-black swine while clenching a stiletto in his teeth. SO, the fact that fully half the voters seem to be fond of Edwards as a 2nd choice bodes well for the man, I’d say. Mopey Kucinich voters could make the difference!

Edit: D’oh! I meant Iowa, not New Hampshire. N.H. Does a primary, which is more straightforward. It goes 30-30-17 Hilly/Bammy/Eddy in N.H. right now, but if Edwards did win in Iowa, that could change pretty quick.

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